The Indus Waters Treaty, long hailed as a model of conflict resolution, is now facing perhaps its greatest challenge since its signing in 1960. India’s recent actions on the Chenab River, which resulted in decreased water flow to Pakistan, have raised serious questions about the treaty’s relevance and resilience in a changing geopolitical and environmental landscape.
Signed with the help of the World Bank, the treaty allocated three eastern rivers to India and three western rivers to Pakistan, while allowing limited use of the western rivers by India for hydroelectric projects. It was designed not only to divide water equitably but also to prevent the resource from becoming a weapon of war.
For over six decades, even through wars and periods of high tension, the treaty endured. Now, with climate change, increased water stress, and rising nationalism, its provisions are being tested. Pakistan argues that India is exploiting loopholes and not honoring the spirit of the agreement, especially in regard to notification and transparency. India counters that its actions are well within its rights, pointing to sediment removal and dam safety.
Legal scholars and water experts suggest that the treaty needs an update. It was designed in a different era — one without modern satellite data, changing monsoon cycles, and massive population growth. But amending a treaty between two rival nations is no easy task, especially when mistrust runs deep.
The current situation with the Chenab may serve as a catalyst. Some propose establishing an independent monitoring body, or upgrading the Permanent Indus Commission into a more robust, transparent forum. Without reforms, the treaty could either become a dead letter or a source of perpetual conflict.
As water scarcity grows, the durability of the Indus Waters Treaty will likely determine whether South Asia’s future is cooperative or confrontational.
